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CFHC Talkback For News Story #117: Newest Talkback: 12:03 AM 09-28 EDT

Hurricane Joyce and the Season
10:54 AM EDT - 27 September 2000

Joyce has been upgraded to a hurricane, and continues to zip on toward the west at a pretty good clip. Joyce will have potential to affect the Caribbean later on, so it must be watched. The MRF does have it missing the islands to the north as it goes on a loop, though. But that's conjecture.

I thought that it would be good to note how active this season really has been. Regardless of a lot of storms that just went "poof", we are already up to the "J" storm this year. Which is as far as we got entirely last year. And there's still two months left in Hurricane Season.

The peak is over, but the potential is not.

We will continue to watch the tropics...

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac. or Joyce From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at: [NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #68 (of 68 total)

Good link (#1)
Posted by: David
Posted On 11:12AM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Check out this link (it takes a min to load)

http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Its a great loop where you can see Isaac chugging along, and the forces that will push him out to see.
It will be interesting to see how Joyce is effected by him.

NTC Calculation for Season so Far (#2)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 11:30AM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPS*)

Using Dr. Gray's various parameters, I've calculated the Net Tropical Cyclone activity (NTC) for the season through the 21st. There have been:

8 named storms
4 hurricanes
1 intense hurricane
37 named storm days
16.5 hurricane days
1 intense hurricane day

--for an NTC of ~62% of the 1950-1990 average. This is well below Gray's forecast 130% NTC. Depending on how much Isaac and Joyce turn out to be, the figures may be hiked up significantly. By the way, Isaac and Joyce aren't included in the figures--it would be foolish to do so while they're still active.

Calculations (#3)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 01:01PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

But you should include Joyce and Isaac as hurricanes, since they are...therefore 6 hurricanes do far.

Looks likely Joyce will affect the islands.

IHS,

Bill

interesting map (#4)
Posted by: troy (http://www.surfinfo.com/html/nwswave.html)
Posted On 01:25PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNQTQ*)

i found this map while searching for a forecast on ocean swells.

http://www.surfinfo.com/html/nwswave.html

while it is not a forecast map for any surface low, it does show swell direction and heights. what is the intersting partis on the 72 hour portion it shows waves radiating out in a 360 degree fashion from one central area just north of cuba, as if a low was centered there.

this would be too early for joyce to be at that location at that time, but may be remnants of what is festering off ann on in the carribean

just a different vantage point than the normal models. have fun

Low off Cuba (#5)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/~jfaul) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 01:58PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNSQNXRNQQY*)

The low you see is from the activity in the SW Carribean right now. The models want to develop something and move it through Cuba in the general vicinity of SoFla.

where is everyone? (#6)
Posted by: dice
Posted On 04:39PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUV*)

i know there are a lot of people out there who have an opinion on where joyce might go...lets here them

where is everyone? (#7)
Posted by: dice
Posted On 04:40PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUV*)

i know there are a lot of people out there who have an opinion on where joyce might go...lets hear them

Reply to dice (#8)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 05:03PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQPNRQTNS*)

Well, Joyce could take many different tracks. It could hit the central islands and contiue on a west track such as Allen or Gilbert, or it could hit the northern islands and go into the Bahamas. Actually, it is really too early to make any really acurate long range forecasts

The Blob of Moisture South of Cuba (#9)
Posted by: Cathy
Posted On 05:15PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNQVU*)

I keep looking at this thing. Is it doing something?

FORGET ABOUT HURRICANES (#10)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 05:17PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQYY*)

According to some reliable sources and apparently the news media now, the Government, our Government, has been doping the waters of the atlantic with a product called DYNA GEL to eliminate the growth of Hurricanes. It was also rumored that 50 personnel at NOAA tendered their resignations, as it was widespread that NOAA was scheduling to use this material on Joyce within the next several days. This will produce widespread environmental effects around te Globe in this man's opinion. This is no joke. I have been posting on this site several years and am quite upset about this. It has been said that the product has been used all season long on all storms that were a potential threat to land. The Government is now controlling the weather thank you very much. Let's see what happens to Joyce. Environmentalists and others be prepared to do some writing. TO your congressman. NO CHeers!!!

To Steve H. (#11)
Posted by: Alex
Posted On 05:24PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQPNRQTNS*)

Just curious. What are your sources on this gel project?

What? (#12)
Posted by: Kevin
Posted On 05:39PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)

What source and what media outlets? Inquiring minds want to know......

Sources (#13)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 05:41PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUY*)

Personnel at the NWS at Miami and FOX news.

Thanks (#14)
Posted by: Kevin (http://€©@ˆëè)
Posted On 05:46PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)

Thanks for the info....

What!!!! (#15)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 05:50PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Steve your post's were always good reading, but this sounds like a tabloid story

Rumours, aka Urban legends (#16)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 06:19PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Steve!

This is an urban legend, is has been going around for quite a few years. Just because someone works at NWS does NOT mean they are an authoritative source about such. I assure you 50% of NOAA did not tender their resignation about anything. And this wouldn't be the first time the news media 'reported' such a thing as fact, when it is NOT.

This is on several urban legend sites, and I've hheard about the 'dyna-gel' idea segeral times...there is a guy who promotes the idea, but it has not been seriously considered to date. THAT was on a CNN site earlier this yr.

IHS,

Bill

Dyna-gel (#17)
Posted by: Junior Location: Bunnell,Fl
Posted On 06:19PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQUVNRTPNXW*)

Kevin, I heard the same thing. They were talking about it at the barber shop today.

Correction (#18)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 06:21PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Pardon my typoos, please!

I see you said 50 NOAA employees, not 50%..sorry, but still not true, not for reason cited.

IHS,

Bill

DYNAGEL = GELATIN USED IN MARSHMALLOWS (#19)
Posted by: OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 06:26PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRRXNQPQ*)

LOL... The ocean is going to turn into one big marshmallow and the fish are gonna turn into gummi-fish. Dynagel is the ingredient found in these two foods.. LOL.. Here is there link if you are curious about Dynagel.. www.dynagel.com

I guess if you thicken the ocean enough.. LOL

Dyna-Gel (#20)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 06:28PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Want to know what it is really used for...

http://www.dynagel.com/cottage_cheese.html

IHS,

Bill

Bill (#21)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:30PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQVS*)

My friend, you do not know everything that Steve and I know. They showed this product today on Fox News and how it dissipated a storm cloud off the coast of Florida. Steve and I both know the reliability of the source, and yes, indeed, 50 people handed in their resignations today at NOAA when they found out about this product. It's NOT an urban legend, it's the TRUTH. You watch and see what happens to Joyce. Or, if the crap starts hitting the fan over this, watch what DOESN'T happen to Joyce. Also, it has been reported on the radio by several different stations. You should be concerned about what this will do to our environment. Not urban legends.

DG (#22)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 06:32PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

My last word on DG...

there is a guy who wants to spread it on the ocean in front of a hurricane (so the rumor goes)...now, just think about that for minute...think how much it would take...think about waves and wind, and current..think about all the reasons such a crazy scheme could not work....also it is used in cottage cheese!

IHS,

Bill

DYNAGEL = GELATIN USED IN MARSHMALLOWS (#23)
Posted by: OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 06:32PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRRXNQPQ*)

LOL... The ocean is going to turn into one big marshmallow and the fish are gonna turn into gummi-fish. Dynagel is the ingredient found in these two foods.. LOL.. Here is there link if you are curious about Dynagel.. www.dynagel.com

I guess if you thicken the ocean enough.. LOL

Dyna Gel (#24)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 06:32PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQWX*)

I to have heard of Dyna Gel in the first part of this year. It is based on theory more than anything else. I doubt the Government would be keeping it "TOP SECRET". It would take such a large amount of this product to cover the Ocean that it would have washed up on shore by now. Also, with an election year Al Gore would have leaked it out to Win the election!! Think of all the lives and property that could be saved by this product, why keep it a secret?

DG (#25)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 06:34PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Ok, one more word...

look, I didn't say that someone wasn't trying to use it to modify weather..I assume they are nased on what you said. However, I know of no credible plan to spread it in front of any storm, and if 50 NOAA employees resigned, we will read about it tomorrow.

IT has been, and probably the hurricane story is, an urban legend..or an exagerration. Time will tell!

IHS,

Bill

Dynagel (#26)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 06:40PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNTR*)

Hey I heard that Al Gore invented the stuff...

This is so funny.....hehe

GET REAL.......

Dynagel (#27)
Posted by: Ramdy
Posted On 06:49PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNXXNVRNQVT*)

If you really think about;; it well you get the idea
dont buy that story

NOAA Employees (#28)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:55PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNTW*)

Yeah, you probably will read about it tomorrow.

One more thing on Dyna Gel (#29)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 06:59PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQWX*)

I for one am in favor of anything that would kill off a hurricane before it hit land. I enjoy tracking hurricanes, I did not enjoy hearing about 10,000 people being KILLED by hurricane Mitch!!! I think some people are just mad this year that a hurricane has not hit somewhere where thousands of people have lost their lives and property. I for one don't get off on other peoples losses!!

dyno....... (#30)
Posted by: GREG
Posted On 07:01PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNRRWNQT*)

I think J.J. Walker invented Dyna-gel..........he was overheard on the set of Good Times saying it was Dynomiiiiiiite!!!!!!!

??? (#31)
Posted by: Darcy (http://www.dynagel.com )
Posted On 07:01PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNYT*)

I don't know what to think now.
I am confused. I have never heard about this.
I will believe once Joyce dies for an unknown reasond, with perfect conditions like now.

D.

From NOAA site (#32)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 07:17PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

As for the other ideas, there has been some experimental work in trying to develop a liquid that when placed over the ocean surface would prevent evaporation from occurring. If this worked in the tropical cyclone environment, it would probably have a detrimental effect on the intensity of the storm as it needs huge amounts of oceanic evaporation to continue to maintain its intensity (Simpson and Simpson 1966). However, finding a substance that would be able to stay together in the rough seas of a tropical cyclone proved to be the downfall of this idea.

Dynagel (#33)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 07:17PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

I went on an info hunt myself, and as far as I can tell, this is a rumor. None of the major newswires (AP, UPI, Reuters, AFP) have anything on it. And Matt Drudge respond to me with a big negative on it. Heck even Art Bell (or what was once Art Bell) doesn't have anything on it.

Folks familiar with the talk radio program hosted by Jim Phillips in east Central Florida would probably call it a "Hose".

It's actually a product developed by the Illuminati in the mount Weather complex west of Washington, DC. Dispersed by black helicopters (check out alt.conspiracy.black.helicopters) It was originally developed by Adam Weishaupt, the Austrian father of the Illuminati organization.

In all seriousness, however. Nothing against Steve and all, but it sounds like a hose to me. Would be a fun way to excuse the way this season has been, though.

As if... (#34)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 07:30PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNRTQNQS*)

Dyna-Gel? Using it for storm weakening? Right. Let me hear it from all the wire services,
NOAA, the NHC/NWS, let's see the papers detailing how it works, and commentary from other meteorologists. Then we'll talk.

dynagel (#35)
Posted by: Randy
Posted On 07:32PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNXXNVRNQVT*)

after some thought I`d have to say i`ts impossible

Helene, yes HELENE!!! (#36)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:34PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTSNU*)

Well u folks in the states may have forgotten about last weeks Tropical Storm Helene, but she has left her mark here!
The remnants of Helene reached our shores today, with winds of upto 60 mph, and over 2 inches of rain. Almost all counites in England were issued Flood Watch, and many Rivers are on Flood Warning. Just wanted to post about an old storm still affecting ppl now!

Richard (#37)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 07:46PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

Richard,

How many inches of Dyna-Gel accumulated in the U.K.?...LOL

Sorry, couldn't resist. It's the only way to explain the lack of development of our storms this season ;)

Just to respond to Bruce and that's it (#38)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 08:03PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNQWY*)

No I don't take pleasure in other people's losses. the fact is that these storms do have a purpose, and we are upsetting an atmospheric balance by using chemical methods to dissipate them. One way or another the truth will be revealed. And by the way the stuff isn't spread over the water. And no Al Gore would not get any support from the environmentalists which is what he is blasting Bush about right now....environmental issues. I'll say no more on this.

meteosat (#39)
Posted by: mark
Posted On 08:29PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRVNQQUNRSY*)

wow, look at meteosat photos, there are more distubances lined up in Africa,still to come.cant remember CAPE VERD season still being so active so late. joyce is similar to david 1979.and inez 1966, both major canes.

Cape Verde Season (#40)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 08:33PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

True, it's an odd late start to the Verde Season. Joyce could be the one to watch. I think there is a possibility that Joyce will most likely go north of the Caribbean. (Not necesarilly missing the NE Leewards) After that, it does have a chance to affect the US coastline.

As for the remnants of Helene, indeed it did cause quite a mess for Great Britain.

Storm Seeding (#41)
Posted by: Robert Location: West Palm Beach
Posted On 08:46PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWQ*)

The Dyno Gel stuff was invented by a man in Jupiter,FL. He was on the local WPB stations at the beginning of hurricane season and even went out in a plane with a TV news crew to show how it works. I don't know that they are actually using the stuff in this year's storms, but it does truely exist. You can contact WPEC, WPTV, or WPBF in WPB, at least one of them had the story on TV. The product is not a hoax.

Dynagel (#42)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 09:00PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTT*)

DynaGel Incorporated

Plummer St. & Wentworth Ave.
Calumet City, Illinois 60409
708.891.8400
Fax 708.891.8432
1-888-DYNAGEL

Stock purchase.. (#43)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 09:04PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQTNQVT*)

anyone have a symbol for me..i am calling my broker first thing in the morning. We have the potential for two major hurricanes at the same time in the next few days..a wave coming off and carribean development. Demand for this stuff is going to be real high!!

Look out Florida (#44)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:15PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

They are starting to run tests on 90L south of Jamaica they had a glitch.. but it is starting, look out Florida

A VERY IMPORTANT RETRACTION FOLKS (#45)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:19PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUR*)

Listen, this is important. The information we received was from someone who cracked another person's password on CompuServe today and gave us bogus information. This person was impersonating someone, and actually IM'd me with this information. I have now found out this this is bunk. Please accept my humble apology, and do not be too harsh on me or my other friend, Steve who received the same message. Thank you, Colleen

RETRACTION (#46)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 09:21PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQXV*)

I SHOULD KNOW BETTER TO CHECK MY SOURCES FIRST. THE PERSON WHO I RECEIVED THIS INFO FROM IS A RELIABLE SOURCE....HOWEVER...SOMEONE GOT HOLD OF HIS PASSWARD AND DUPED ME INTO BELIEVING THAT THIS INFO ON DYNA-GEL WAS FACT...SOMEONE IS HAVING A GOOD LAUGH AT MY EXPENSE...WE'RE TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE IP ADDRESS NOW. I APOLOGIZE FOR THE FLACK I CAUSED TO FLY ON THIS SITE..I GUESS I HAVE BLIND FAITH IN THE PEOPLE WHO ARE CHATTING ON THE SITE...THE SCAREY PART IS THAT THIS WAS AN INSTANT MESSAGE TO MY HOME. PLEASE EXCUSE THIS MORONIC MOVE...IT WON'T HAPPEN AGAIN! I WILL PUT MY TAIL BETWEEN MY LEGS AND GO HOME ..BAAAA! CHEERS!!

IT'S OK COLLEEN (#47)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:23PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Sometimes we need a controversy is good to get the blood flowing. We might need it soon

Colleen.... (#48)
Posted by: Frank (http://fjpell2@aol.com) Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 09:24PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRQQ*)

Hey, and how do we know this is really Colleen

Fired up.... (#49)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 09:27PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRQQ*)

I think Colleen and Steve did it intentionally just to put a fire under us to get some board action tonight (LOL).... looks like it worked too... Colleen, sure hope you didn't email any of this bunk to the NHC... hehe

oops (#50)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:28PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Sorry about the improper English but I wanted to post quick. Steve don't sweat the small stuff.

Dyna-Gel (#51)
Posted by: StormHound (http://www.stormhound.homestead.com/) Location: O-Town
Posted On 09:30PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRURNVVNQUX*)

It has been confirmed that back in the 60's there were some attempts at cloud seeding to equalize the temperatures or some such nonsense. Though cloud seeding has been used occasionally with limited success to help relieve drought conditions, all attempts to weaken hurricanes have been stopped. First off, with as little as we know about cyclones, there's a decent chance we would intensify a storm rather than weaken it. How would you (NOAA) like to deal with the political fallout from that? Secondly, figure the eye of the hurricane to be a few cubic miles. Just think about how much of Product X you would have to dump into the ocean to even begin to have any effect at all on a storm that size. Logic would tell you that even if this far-fetched story were somehow possibly true, an armada of planes or ships would be required to carry it out. Do you think GreenPeace would be ok with NOAA dumping a few hundred tons of Product X or Y into the ocean? It would never happen without years of preliminary testing. Trust me. If, in fact, 50 people did resign from NOAA today, I'll bet it has much more to do with management than with any kind of TOP SECRET Dyna-Gel testing.

Stormhound (#52)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:33PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Do you know if any were form NHC ?

Steve and Colleen (#53)
Posted by: StormHound (http://www.stormhound.homestead.com/) Location: O-Town
Posted On 09:34PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRURNVVNQUX*)

Boy you guys are retracting this stuff before I can post a contradiction. I get these kind of stories from the internet all the time in my job. I've learned to always check my sources three or four times before reacting to it.

I think the guy who runs the models quit (second try) (#54)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:41PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9000) ON 20000929 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000929 0000 000929 1200 000930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000930 1200 001001 0000 001002 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 16.5N LON0 = 82.5W DIR0 = 0DEG SPD0 = 0KT

LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 0DEG SPDM12 = 0KT

LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 82.5W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

I think the guy who runs the models quit (second try) (#55)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:41PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9000) ON 20000929 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000929 0000 000929 1200 000930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000930 1200 001001 0000 001002 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 16.5N LON0 = 82.5W DIR0 = 0DEG SPD0 = 0KT

LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 0DEG SPDM12 = 0KT

LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 82.5W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Does that mean we have TD #15? (#56)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 09:50PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

Gary,

Do you think they are trying to initiate TD #15? The model post was a bit confusing with the missing info.

Stormhound (#57)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:51PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUR*)

I agree, however; this was not something that I read or just heard about. It was someone who is a very good friend of mine, that I have known for over two years, that IM'd me at home with this information. Looking back, I should have noticed some clues, but I didn't until after I found out it was not the person I thought it was. I apologised humbly, so please accept it that way. It was eerie, and it was scary. They also im'd his family and told him his wife was in the hospital dying and they needed to come down right away. If his family thought it was him, why shouldn't I have believed that it was him?

Anyway, it's over now. Heads up Florida...

DynaGel (#58)
Posted by: brian
Posted On 09:51PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QWRNQVRNPNRRW*)

Give people credit for admitting a faux pas on the DynaGel debacle. Takes a big person to do so!! Thankfully I scrolled through all the posts before firing off a salvo. I did like the crack about how much DynaGel washed up on the shores over in the UK though!! ROFLOL !!!

Clyde w (#59)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:55PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

That was my point. I don't know why the info is missing but it,s the second time they released it in the last two hours

Caribbean System (#60)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 09:57PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

Well to Steve and Coleen's credit. It did make me do a pretty exhaustive search for more info before I made the comment. No harm in that, I believe.

As far as the Caribbean system, yes it's finally coming together and may be something tomorrow.
I'll try to squeeze out a site update tonight. They've been pretty bland for the past few weeks, and I need to comment a bit more I think.

Colleen and Steve H. (#61)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 10:00PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

I was just teasing with the UK joke. Please don't take it personally. I read both of yours (and others) posts here faithfully and fully enjoy what everyone adds to the site. Didn't mean to offend, if I did, my apologies to both.

petrol products in the soup (#62)
Posted by: Chris Location: Cary
Posted On 10:01PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNWSNWYNQRX*)

I have seen articles in a couple of reputable science magazines recently(i.e. May 2000 Scientific American) that talk about dumping a couple hundred tons of oil in the path of a hurricane thereby creating a thin barrier on the surface, impeding convection. This amount would represent less then 100th of 1% of the oil dumped into oceans annually. Considering the number of land threathening hurricanes each year, this would literally be a drop in the bucket. Therefore, the environmentalists can't have as much to say.

I saw a comment earlier about this 'dynagel' washing up on the beaches. How often do you see oil on your beaches, with the thousands and thousands of tons dumped? But here is the question: What if you were able to stop all cyclones from developing? What do you think would be the net result? Higher SST's resulting in a eventual Category 9 hurricane! I'm interested in your thoughts....

the end of the discussion (#63)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:04PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNQTU*)

Thankfully, this Dynagel discussion is over. However, the tropics are getting more active, so we'll have to keep our eyes open on Joyce, the Western Caribbean, and anywhere else developement might occur.

C at 9 (#64)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 10:07PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Chris,

I have long been a believer of the theory that the purpose of weather systems is to "let off atmospheric steam" so to speak. If all hurricanes were eliminated, I think the results would be a throwing off of the balance of nature, resulting in catastrophic weather events not necessarily related to the tropics. I can only guess as to the types, but I would bet floods, violent land based weather systems, and such would be the net result.

Mid - Level - Low (#65)
Posted by: Richard Davis (http://flhurricane.com/rad) Location: St Petersburg, Florida
Posted On 10:17PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRXNRNSY*)

As far as the low pressure "center" in the Carribean. I dont think us folks here in central florida will have too much to worry about. It will probably track north by north-east and just be a general "Rainmaker" of sort's , and we could use the rain!!!!! As far as Joyce well lets just say gimme 4 days . The people in the islands should start preparing NOW!!!

Test Runs (#66)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:53PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUR*)

Winds on twave in Caribbean are up to 25knts/or mph now. maybe another TD by tomorrow? or tonight? And yes, this is the REAL Colleen back from the land of loonies.

The imposter, btw, has been caught.

a Hurricane's Power (#67)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile, Alabama
Posted On 11:06PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNVQ*)

When one consider the latent energy in the seas, and the forces at work when a hurricane is wreaking it's havoc...it's unbelievable that someone could think that puny man could stop one. Ever notice that whenever man "improves" things then the consequences later are worse than the problem at first. I fear that government and big business...the day they decide the "help" us with hurricanes...is the day we better watch with trepidation. Hurricanes are built in relief valves to dispense excess heat in the waters...whenever the seas are too hot...the fish and little critters suffer. Anyway...I hope this forum doesn't too quickly fall for another "dynagel" hoax...

It was a good laugh...I went through a hurricane....so to think mankind could invent something to stop it is rather amusing.....

Comment (#68)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 12:03AM 28-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNYV*)

Hurricanes are great at transporting heat and moisture from the tropics to the mid-latitudes. I read somewhere that if 12 hurricanes were simulataneously churning the world ocean, it would take care of the whole tropics - mid-latitude heat transport, at least for the respective seasons. However, I doubt there have ever been 12 hurricanes at once, and the fact that all hell isn't breaking loose without 12 hurricanes at once confirms that hurricanes aren't truly necessary, in the atmospheric sense. I disagree with storm modification more for philosophical than practical reasons. However, they perform valuable functions, such as providing rains--some places get a LOT of their annual rainfall from TCs-- "cleaning out" swamps and lagoons (like the Everglades), increasing biodiversity in forests by clearing old trees, and perhaps other services we haven't even considered.

As for storm modification, even if it works:

--it would take years to test
--it would probably take a long time to gain the public's trust
--it would still be difficult to pick changes caused by seeding out from changes that might or might not have occurred without it.
--it's unlikely other countries would accept it readily; both Mexico and Japan rejected possible storm modifying programs in their AORs.

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