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- [mac]

Last Day of 2000 Hurricane Season
09:10 AM EST - 30 November 2000 | Thirteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 05:51 PM 12-22 EDT

November 30th, the last day of the 2000 Hurricane Season is here. And, strangely enough, there is an area in the Western Caribbean that bears watching. Although it is unlikely anything will form, it does look pretty good for this time of year and will have to be watched for development.

This year has been a very active year, but with a lot of close calls and nothing extremely destructive. Debby being the most potentially threatening of them all for the US. A better run down of systems will come in the next few days.

Thanks for all the support this year. We intend to be back next year with even more information. The site will run throughout the year with minor and sporadic updates in the off season.

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- [mac]

November
09:26 AM EST - 05 November 2000 | Five Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 10:11 AM 11-28 EDT

The month of November will most likely remain quiet. Hurricane Season is winding down and will be over on November 30th. This year had quite a number of storms, but none that were very destructive.

We'll continue to watch until the end. Thanks for all the participation in the message boards. We hope to improve upon the site for next year, without compromising what works now.

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- [mac]

Southwest Caribbean
07:51 AM EST - 29 October 2000 | Five Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 01:20 PM 11-03 EDT

Right now the only thing worth watching is in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. There is a persistant area that may want to form over the next few days. Folks along the coast in that area should be watching in case something does form. If it does, I don't expect anything major.

The low in the Atlantic has moved up and out without forming into anything tropical.

Today was the day you should have set your clocks back an hour. If you forgot, do it now.

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- [mac]

Low Area Heading Toward US
02:00 PM EDT - 26 October 2000 | Eight Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 12:39 PM 10-27 EDT

There is a low pressure system moving generally toward the west or westnorthwest north of the Bahamas approaching the US. It will probably head more north and northeastward later on before it gets too close, however. Right now it can be considered a non-tropical low system. Hurricane Hunter aircraft are on the way to check it out, needless to say it could bring nasty weather to the east coast of the US or Canada in the form of tropical or non-tropical storm. In fact, a non-tropical system has a much larger windfield (although normally nowhere near as strong as a hurricane). It could convert itself into a subtropical or tropical system, so we will be closely watching it.

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- [mac]

Caribbean a No Go
02:22 PM EDT - 23 October 2000 | Thirteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 01:45 PM 10-26 EDT

The system talked about in the previous article never formed, and right now there is once again nothing going on in the Atlantic. There is an area moving east in the Central Atlantic that looks interesting, but I doubt anything can happen there. The only hint of anything that may happen comes in the form of the forecasting models, but since that goes into the realm of pure speculation, there is no reason to suspect something will develop.

I expect one more named storm this year before it's all said and done.

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- [mac]

Tropical Storm Nadine Forms
11:42 AM EDT - 20 October 2000 | Six Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 12:26 PM 10-23 EDT

Tropical Depression 18 has strengthened into Nadine, and is moving nowhere near land right now. It is projected to remain a tropical storm, and not move near land.
There's an interesting area in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea that's definitely worth keeping an eye on over the next few days as well. It's very possible TD#19 will show up there.

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- [jc]

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- [mac]

Another System
07:15 AM EDT - 19 October 2000 | Fourteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 11:12 PM 10-19 EDT

Michael is churning itself toward the north and moving over colder waters. Thankfully, it never threatened Bermuda. Now a new system quite a good distance Northeast of Puerto Rico looks like it may be trying to get its act together. We are getting pretty high into the names now, and if it were to develop it would be called Nadine. This too has nearly no chance of affecting land. We will watch it closely, regardless.

Hurricane season is not OVER yet. Last day of it is November 30th. Please remember this.

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- [mac]

Hurricane Michael
05:16 PM EDT - 17 October 2000 | Six Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 03:49 AM 10-19 EDT

Amazingly, Michael has strengthened into a hurricane, which brings into question its potential affect on the island of Bermuda. Folks there will want to keep close eye on it as it has a chance of coming nearby.

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- [jc]

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- [mac]

The Next Tropical Storm
08:51 AM EDT - 16 October 2000 | Two Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 08:33 PM 10-16 EDT

May form from the area discussed yesterday. It has strong enough gale force winds, that if it did convert over to a tropical system in the next day or two it would probably skip the Depression state and go directly to a Tropical Storm, Michael.

We'll continue to watch it.

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- [mac]

Area Between Bahamas and Bermuda
02:23 PM EDT - 15 October 2000 | Four Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 09:04 PM 10-15 EDT

The area of low pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas may become a depression or subtropical system today or tomorrow. It's looking fairly organized right now, and should develop shortly. It probably will stay away from land, but we'll be watching.

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- [mac]

October
07:17 AM EDT - 11 October 2000 | Seven Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 12:51 PM 10-15 EDT

Still not much going on right now. It's going to be slow from here on out, although now is the time when things can form somewhat unexpectedly, so we will be watching.

Hurricane Season is not over until November 30th.

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- [mac]

Season Slowing Down
07:33 AM EDT - 08 October 2000 | Nine Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 05:55 PM 10-10 EDT

It appears the end of the 2000 hurricane season is getting near.  Although the official end is not until November 30th.  It is kind of quiet out in the tropics with just a low pressure system 500 miles south west of the Cape Verde islands and looking good on satellite.  It is forecasted to encounter some heavy shear, so immediate strengthening is not forecasted.

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- [jc]

Leslie and Keith
08:44 AM EDT - 06 October 2000 | Three Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 07:53 PM 10-06 EDT

Leslie is heading away and will pass by Bermuda later on. Most of the convection in Leslie is to the south and east, so they've put up Tropical Storm Warnings for Leslie.

The last advisory on Keith was issued this morning. It's raining itself out in Northeast Mexico currently. Plenty of Rain for them.

Outside of that, it's strangely quiet. The only peep being in the East Atlantic. But that wave will not have a chance to develop because of the shearing going on that direction.

For the moment, all else is quiet. The season is not over, however. So we'll be watching.

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- [mac]

SubTD#1 Becomes Tropical Storm Leslie
11:07 AM EDT - 05 October 2000 | Four Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 01:28 PM 10-05 EDT

Leslie has formed, and is moving away from the US. Not much else to say here. It is highly unlikely that it could affect land.

Keith is almost on land again, moving into Mexico.

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- [mac]

Keith Hurricane Once Again and SUBTD
05:58 AM EDT - 05 October 2000 | Five Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 06:47 PM 10-05 EDT

Keith, once again, has become a Hurricane. Again, before landfall, moving west northwest toward the Mexican Coast. It has come back a little better than I expected. Folks along the eastern Mexican coast have Hurricane Warnings to deal with. As a minimal Hurricane, it will cause some minor damage and plenty of rain.

Speaking of plenty of rain, SubTD#1, which cause oh so much rain in Florida, is heading generally east away from the US. The "SubTD" snuck up on a lot of us and caused quite a bit of flooding. Outside of this there is nothing much going on.

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- [mac]

Keith Tropical Storm. SubTD#1?
04:50 PM EDT - 04 October 2000 | Thirteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 11:46 PM 10-04 EDT

Ok, here's a new curveball I just didn't know about. The NHC tracking "subtropical" depressions. Or what it's calling the thing off the Florida East Coast near Daytona Beach. A Subtropical system has a much larger windfield than a normal tropical system, and sometimes they can form into tropical systems. This is new to me (the fact that the Hurricane Center calls it this), so comments on it are welcome. Anyway "Sub Tropical Depression #1" has formed off the Florida East Coast and more will come later on it. (It plays havoc with the automated code here though, overjoy)

Keith has reformed into a Tropical Storm and will remain that way as it enters the Mexican Coastline...

More will come later.

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- [mac]

Keith Back Over Water
07:29 AM EDT - 04 October 2000 | Eleven Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 05:22 PM 10-04 EDT

Keith did not travel north into the Central Gulf as was projected by the NHC last week. They did mention this possibility, though. It's now moving west northwest over water toward the Mexican coastline. It will probably restrengthen during the day and may spawn watches or warnings on the Mexican coastline. Keith turned out to be a big problem for Belize, but for us, it may not. Mexico still will have to deal with it. In the off chance it still decides to play something strange, we'll continue to suggest the rest of the western Gulf to watch it.

Joyce won't regenerate. The low area around Florida will cause rain, and may develop slowly as it moves over water. And there's nothing else worth talking about at the moment.

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- [mac]

Keith Tropical Storm
06:52 AM EDT - 03 October 2000 | Eighteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 10:07 PM 10-03 EDT

Keith is now over land and finally moving, just a bit, toward the Northwest. The National Hurricane Center thinks it will reemerge in the Central Gulf and head generally northward. I tend to agree now. And restrengthen into hurricane status when it does. Keith continues to be a problem.

The remnants of Joyce are looking very poor this morning, so I don't see anything reoccuring with it.

The low just south of Florida looks like it may try to build into something tropical, but I doubt it will get strong enough to cause anything other than more rain for Florida.

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- [mac]

Interesting Developments
04:26 PM EDT - 02 October 2000 | Twelve Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 01:48 AM 10-03 EDT

Keith is still weakening near the coast, and still not moving. Joyce dissipated, but may regenerate. (50/50 chance) The folks in Belize have received a huge amount of rain and wind the last few days.

An area south of Cuba along with a cold front is causing a great deal of rain in South Florida. There is a chance that something minimal could form south of Cuba. That along with Keith and Ex-Joyce will make it somewhat interesting, but nothing in the extreme danger category (Like Keith was a few days ago)looks likely.

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- [mac]

Keith/Joyce
04:57 AM EDT - 02 October 2000 | Thirty-eight Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 07:07 PM 10-02 EDT

This morning Keith has been in a weird position. It has been half over land and half over water. And with not moving much at all last night, has had the land (and everone on it, unfortunately) take its toll on the hurricane's structure. It hasn't moved one bit, and still continues to pound Belize. It's future track is still projected by the National Hurricane Center to eventually head north over the peninsula and into the Gulf as a Tropical Storm. Keith's non-movement may be good for the US, but it's been a nightmare for the folks in Belize. So it's not the best solution.

Joyce is now projected to be a Tropical Storm in about 72 hours south of Cuba in the Western Caribbean, so we'll have that to watch as well. Any interaction between Keith and Joyce could make things interesting later down the road. We'll be watching.

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- [mac]

Keith Pounds as it Weakens, Joyce TD
05:24 PM EDT - 01 October 2000

Jim Williams WABN/Hurricane City is doing a live broadcast right now.

Hurricane Keith, with the west side of the Eyewall over land. Has weakened a bit during the afternoon back to a still major Category 3 system. The dynamics have changed a bit and now the NHC calls for it to move over the Yucatan and weaken to reemerge in the Gulf as a mid-strong Tropical Storm. This is better than the other possible scenario which included it heading up almost due north missing most of the land. However, Belize and the Yucatan of Mexico is getting truly hammered now, and has been all day. Keith is still the number one concern. The entire Gulf coast will have to watch it.

Joyce is been downgraded to a Tropical Depression, and now sits just north of South America in the Caribbean. It's going to be moving through a historically poor area for Storms, so it may remain weak until it gets through this area in the East Caribbean. Later on, Joyce will become yet another concern in the Western Caribbean.

Isaac had its last advisory issued at 11AM this morning. It's now an extratropical low heading away in the northern latitudes.
Hurricane Keith photos from Ambergris Caye

Hurricane Information Bulletin Board for Belize and Ambergis Caye

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- [mac]

Category 4 Hurricane Keith Still Moving Little
07:10 AM EDT - 01 October 2000 | Thirty-two Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 04:31 PM 10-01 EDT

Keith is an amazing looking system. The folks along the Yucuatan's eastern coast are getting pounded right now. Keith is just sitting and spinning in very warm waters. It's still projected to head north, over land for a bit in the Yucatan and then into the central Gulf. What else can I say besides watch the system closely. Its slow movement prevents any serious future track talk, so the Gulf needs to watch out. I do expect it to weaken a bit over land (depends on how long it stays over land too), but not enough to get it below hurricane status.

Joyce is barely holding together and moving into the Caribbean, it may strengthen slightly once in the East Caribbean waters, but for now I'll minimize its importance.

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- [mac]

Keith Strengthens
04:46 PM EDT - 30 September 2000 | Twenty-two Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 06:47 AM 10-01 EDT

Hurricane Keith has developed an Eye and is looking very impressive on the satellite. It has strengthened to a category 2 hurricane with 100MPH winds. It is projected to clip the NE tip of the Yucatan moving North Northwest as a Category 3 storm.

Keith's movement is still almost non-existant. Belize still has Hurricane Warnings up, and the Yucatan as well. Trends still suggest that it will wind up in the Gulf and eventually affect land between Lousiana and the Western coast of Florida. Keith has the potential to be one of the few "event" storms, so all eyes need to be on it anywhere in the Northwest Caribbean and Gulf. To be painfully redundant, it still isn't moving and until a trend is spotted it is all speculation. This may take a few days, so we'll be watching it very very closely.

Joyce is still a very weak tropical storm and may have trouble surviving into the Caribbean. Its weakened state has allowed it to slide westward and into the Caribbean. I'm not sure it will ever restregthen, but it will need to be watched. Isaac's nearing the end of its life as a tropical system, and will soon be an extratropical one.

More thoughts to come on this as time goes by...

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- [mac]

Keith Now Hurricane In Northwest Caribbean
11:02 AM EDT - 30 September 2000 | Sixteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 04:47 PM 09-30 EDT

Keith now has a very impressive looking eye.. 5PM updates forthcoming...

Keith has been upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane with 80MPH Winds. It is expected to move slowly north northwest and cross the Northeast section of the Yucatan peninsula. Probably as a Category 2 system. Currently the NHC's calling its movement as meandering. I expect Keith to weaken a bit while its over land, but not below strong Tropical Storm strength, to reemerge in the Gulf of Mexico and reform into a Hurricane. Mexico has issued Hurricane Warnings now for the North coast of the Yucatan. Folks in the Gulf (Especially Florida, Alabama and Louisiana) will want to watch this one closely, as things could change. Keith is starting to look very good on satellite as well. So there is a chance it could deepen more rapidly than expected. Folks in the Yucatan will be advised to prepare now, if you haven't already.

A big caveat with the prediction of the North Northwest movement involves past history with Hurricane Mitch [ Visible Sat of Mitch (1998)]. Models wanted to take that storm to the north, but it eventually meandered toward the west. Becoming a category 5 system and devistating that part of Central America. Mitch caused more deaths than any Atlantic storm previously. Therefore, the NNW solution is not the only solution. Mitch was further south than Keith at the time. But Belize needs to know about this possibility.

Joyce is moving more westward and will be in the southern winward islands tomorrow. I don't think it will regain hurricane strength when it arrives there. After that it's too soon to tell.

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- [mac]

Near-Hurricane Keith.... Joyce
07:47 AM EDT - 30 September 2000 | Eighteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 11:31 AM 09-30 EDT

This morning, everyone is wondering about Keith and Joyce.

We'll start with Joyce for our friends in the East Caribbean. Joyce is weakened, but making a little bit of a rebound. Since Joyce had stayed weak, it has kept a more west track and will now probably enter the Caribbean itself crossing over the eastern islands as a strong Tropical Storm. Interests there must be prepared. In fact, there is a tropical storm watch for Barbados, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada. It's keeping south!

Now Keith... nearing Hurricane Strength, is still drifting somewhat slowly. The latest official projections have it clipping the NE coast of the Yucatan. So therefore a hurricane Warning is up the entire east coast of the Yucatan peninsula (Belize border north to Cabo Catoche) And a Tropical Storm warning is in effect for much of Belize.

After it clips, it is projected to take a long clockwise semi-loop in the Gulf. Which places it near the center of the Gulf of Mexico in 72 hours. After this, it is likely to bend back toward the east. At this point it becomes conjecture, but for the moment Florida's west coast may be under the gun from Keith. However, all the Gulf will need to watch. This season is known for strange things.

When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center and local officials.

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- [mac]

Tropical Storm Keith Forms in Northwest Caribbean
02:38 PM EDT - 29 September 2000 | Fourty-three Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 04:09 AM 09-30 EDT

8PM Update:
Keith is still drifting toward the Nortwest, Joyce is looking to head into the Caribbean Islands... It will be a busy next few days here at CFHC. Keith has the potential to be very strong, so it's the one to watch for us as it has a chance of affecting Florida later on. In fact, Hurricane Watches are already up on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

Original Update:
According to the special update from the Hurricane Center, Keith is now a Tropical Storm. Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the area have found strong enough winds and a good circulation to make this possible. In the last few hours, Keith has started to look a lot better. At 5PM the first advisories for the new Tropical Storm will be out. There may be watches issued along the Northwest Caribbean.

Keith has remained stationary, and probably will for a while. I eventually think it will nudge northward, but long term all bets are off. Along with a slightly weakened Joyce, we'll have two potential threats to land to track over the next several days.

More to come later.

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- [mac]

Technical Problems
08:48 AM EDT - 29 September 2000 | Fourteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 10:22 PM 09-29 EDT

11:15AM Update:
Back Up! Joyce has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm, as yet another storm seems to have its LLCC run out from under it. Strange...

Original Update:

The T1 line on which the FLHurricane server sits went down around 12:10AM this morning. There was a fiber cut on the Cox fiber line which caused this interruption. When it comes back up you should see this story. We apologize for the problems.

Joyce and Isaac are still looking very good. Joyce still looks like it may affect the Caribbean islands. TD#15 is very close to shore and mostly stationary. It will continue to be watched by folks in the Northwest Caribbean.

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- [mac]

TD#15 Forms in Northwest Caribbean
05:38 PM EDT - 28 September 2000 | Fourteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 10:40 PM 09-29 EDT

Tropical Depression #15 is moving very slowly, and is basically stationary at the moment. I expect it to slowly move northwest and gradually strengthen into a hurricane. It would be Keith. It's slow movement will probably make it and Joyce stories in the future.

Isaac is just amazing. It's now a Category 4 system with 140MPH winds. Isaac, by far, is the most impressive looking storm of this season to date. Fortunately for everyone except sailors, it's a non-issue.

Joyce is starting to look as if it may have some sort of impact on the Northeast Caribbean Islands in roughly 3 to 4 days. It may skirt or cross, but it'll be a close call for sure. Folks in these islands will want to watch.

TD#15 is near Honduras right now and barely moving. There are no tropical storm watches or warnings yet, but folks in the Northwest Caribbean will want to watch it very closely. The rest of us will have to wait, as it is a slow mover, and will be hard to tell.

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- [mac]

Isaac, Joyce, Caribbean
11:08 PM EDT - 27 September 2000 | Nineteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 10:35 PM 09-29 EDT

Tonight, after letting everything gel, we can finally see that Hurricane Isaac has once again strengthened into a major hurricane. Isaac has a very impressive Eye at the moment. The future still finds it a fish spinner, but worth checking out on the loops.

Joyce is a much more compact system and is really prone to rapid strengthening and weakening. It's moving generally toward the west, and some models nudge it a bit southwest for a bit before eventually turning back toward the Northwest. The northeast Caribbean islands will want to watch it. My guestimate still places it near the NW Caribbean islands late weekend. I must note that I do not think it will enter the Caribbean. I wish to note that it is not impossible for it to enter the Caribbean, either. Another possibility is that it gets sheared a bit and stays weak.

The system in the West Caribbean is slowly coming together. I think it has a chance to be another rain event for Florida. It could become a depression tomorrow or the next day. Otherwise, I cannot see it gaining enough strength to become too big a threat. Regardless, the "Tropical Apathy" of the last two storms shouldn't be a factor. Things could change. The remains of Helene, in fact, caused some flooding in Great Britain.

For the moment, Joyce remains the most interesting feature, followed by the Caribbean. For sheer appearance, Isaac also gets high marks.

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- [mac]

Hurricane Joyce and the Season
10:54 AM EDT - 27 September 2000 | Sixty-eight Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 12:03 AM 09-28 EDT

Joyce has been upgraded to a hurricane, and continues to zip on toward the west at a pretty good clip. Joyce will have potential to affect the Caribbean later on, so it must be watched. The MRF does have it missing the islands to the north as it goes on a loop, though. But that's conjecture.

I thought that it would be good to note how active this season really has been. Regardless of a lot of storms that just went "poof", we are already up to the "J" storm this year. Which is as far as we got entirely last year. And there's still two months left in Hurricane Season.

The peak is over, but the potential is not.

We will continue to watch the tropics...

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- [mac]

Joyce
09:05 AM EDT - 26 September 2000 | Fourteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 10:45 AM 09-27 EDT

Tropical Storm Joyce has formed southeast of where Isaac's at. Joyce will be the one to watch over the next week or so, as it is expected to track due west further south than Isaac. This is yet another "wait and see" storm.

Isaac itself is still a strong hurricane, but remains a fish spinner.

The area in the Caribbean isn't looking as great right now, so I don't expect much from it now. We'll still watch it, just in case.

Joyce will move due west for a while and has a chnace to affect the Islands later. It should strengthen relatively slowly. Isaac is the main cause for this. Once it's gone, Joyce may have a better chance to intensifying further. Joyce will definitely be the story for a while, though.

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- [mac]

Tropical Depression 14 Forms in East Atlantic
05:54 PM EDT - 25 September 2000 | One Comment | Read Comments | Newest: 12:59 AM 09-26 EDT

This one is more interesting than Isaac, since it has a much better chance of coming closer to the islands. It is expected to strengthen into hurricane status later on. We'll definitely be watching this one as it moves forward.

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- [mac]

More and More
11:18 AM EDT - 25 September 2000 | Ten Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 01:49 PM 09-28 EDT

Isaac has weakened a bit again, as it goes through fluctuations. Still tracking to be a fish spinner, I can see no threat to land from Isaac. The system southeast of Isaac, however, is the canidate for next depression today.

The system in the Caribbean is going to have some trouble getting developed anytime soon, but it could later on.

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- [mac]

Cat 3 Isaac
05:06 PM EDT - 24 September 2000 | Eleven Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 10:15 AM 09-25 EDT

Isaac has strengthened, weakened, and strengthened back into a major hurricane. It's future path, by all accounts, should make it a fish spinner. Isaac is an impressive storm, but all indications are that it will not affect land. We'll continue to watch it, however.

Otherwise, not much is going on. The only somewhat interesting system is the one southeast of Isaac.

We have a new webcam in St. Petersburg now, from Richard there. Thanks for the support, as always, and check it out.

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- [mac]

Aye Eye Isaac
01:26 PM EDT - 23 September 2000 | Twenty-six Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 10:25 PM 09-29 EDT

Isaac has been upgraded to a hurricane. An eye is now apparant on satellite photos, which means that at the next advisory Isaac will be considered a hurricane. It's future still takes it west, with the shear less of a problem than originally thought. It's still a long way away from land and it still appears that it will not affect the Leeward islands. Never the less, it must be watched.

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- [mac]

Helene Landfalls. Future of Isaac
06:49 AM EDT - 23 September 2000 | Seven Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 01:26 PM 09-23 EDT

Tropical Storm Helene made landfall yesterday, and weakened as it approached. Most of the strong storms were to the east of where it made landfall (Pensacola area). It has since dissipated into a mass of rain heading up the southeast. Very similar to what occured with Gordon.

Tropical Storm Isaac is still tracking west, although still not in Shear now, the future holds problems for Issac, as it must go through an area of possible developing shear. This will probably keep it relatively weak for the time being. Most models suggest that it will stay north of the islands. Do to climatology and other factors, I don't expect Issac to do much. The most likely path for this is for it to become a fish spinner, and never threaten land. We'll still watch it, though -- this season is full of abnormalities. But climatology is on my side.

Outside of this there is an area somewhat north of Puerto Rico that has a small chance of becoming something. (I'd bet against it) But otherwise, nothing else going on at the moment.

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- [mac]

Tropical Storm Isaac Forms in East Atlantic
04:30 AM EDT - 22 September 2000 | Seventeen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 01:22 AM 09-23 EDT

First off, Tropical Storm Helene has not strengthened, and it is now nearing the Florida coast near Pensacola. At this time it has actually lost its punch as it approached the coast and is down to 50MPH winds. The strongest activity remains to the east of the center. Weather will be nasty there for a while.

Tropical Storm Issac, what once was TD#13, now exists in the far Eastern Atlantic as a 50MPH Tropical Storm. It is looking very good on satellite this morning. I haven't seen anything like this so far this year since Alberto. Its distance, however, will give us plenty of time to watch it. It should generally head to the west, and should not encounter shear, at least in the short term.

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- [mac]

Helene Does Something Typical
06:41 PM EDT - 21 September 2000 | Five Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 10:48 PM 09-21 EDT

By this, I mean the system's circulation center is away from the convection, which has been the story with a lot of storms this season. This is somewhat good news, as it means it cannot strengthen very easily now. It's slowed just a bit too, but this may cause it to weaken more than anything at this point. It still could strengthen, but I wouldn't bet on it.

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- [mac]

Tropical Storm Watches... TD#13 Forms in East Atlantic
10:54 AM EDT - 21 September 2000 | Thirty-nine Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 06:43 PM 09-21 EDT

5PM Update:
Hurricane Watches are up from Florida/Alabama Border to the mouth of the Alucilla River to the east. Helene has a chance of becoming a minimal hurricane before landfall. Right now the center is nearly exposed, so it's holding on. However, I still think it may strengthen. In any case, this is another big rain bringer. TD#13 hasn't strengthened any yet.

Busy again. Tropical Depression #13 forms in the east Atlantic.

It should track generally westward for the moment and eventually turn north. If in two days or so it doesn't turn north then a more westward track is possible.

Tropical Storm Helene has prompted Tropical Storm Warnings from the mouth of the Pearl River to the mouth of the Aucilla river. It could become a strong Tropical Storm before landfall, and a minimal hurricane is not out of the question either.

More to come later...

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- [mac]

Tropical Storm Helene Forms In Gulf
09:14 AM EDT - 21 September 2000 | Fifteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 07:11 AM 09-22 EDT

A special update from the National Hurricane Center indicates that Tropical Storm Helene has formed in the Gulf. They will be issuing Tropical Storm watches and Warnings at 11AM EDT (10AM CDT) as well as new coordinates at that time. Helene has slowed forward motion just a bit this morning, but should still arrive on the coast as a Tropical Storm..

We'll keep watching...

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- [mac]

TD#12 Stays Together
10:49 PM EDT - 20 September 2000 | Thirteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 09:22 AM 09-21 EDT

TD#12 fought off its troubles and now threatens to become a Tropical Storm. It is now moving northward in the Gulf, and is looking much much better than it did this morning. The storm now presents itself as a threat to the Central to Northeast Gulf coast.

It could strengthen a bit more, too. So folks along the coast here should be watching it very closely. This includes folks in Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida. Since many of the models bring it to this area.

I'm not expecting it to get very strong, but I can be wrong. If the strengthening persists through the night, it could become a hurricane before landfall. So we'll be watching it. Otherwise, the wave off the coast of Africa could form over the next few days if it persists.

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- [mac]

TD#12 Nearly Gone
01:21 PM EDT - 20 September 2000 | Twenty-five Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 11:58 PM 09-20 EDT

Still barely holding on (and arguably at that), Tropical Depression #12 is moving into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. This time the Northern Gulf coast looks like the likely place. If it strengthens, I don't expect much more than a tropical storm. If not, it'll break apart and still cause a good deal of rain.

Outside of TD#12, nothing imminent is out there.

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- [mac]

TD#12 Reforms South of Cuba
08:04 PM EDT - 19 September 2000 | Fourty-seven Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 01:21 PM 09-20 EDT

And I just got back from a trip that took me longer than expected (not by choice).

We'll be tracking it, and more information will come soon...]

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- [mac]

Lots of Action out there
08:06 PM EDT - 18 September 2000 | Fifty-nine Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 07:55 PM 09-19 EDT

Gordon still causing a lot of rain in the southeast. But he is gone!

More action brewing in the tropics.  Remnants of TD #12 working it way in south of Cuba is looking like it may strengthen some.  Two other tropical waves east of the Caribbean we need to keep an eye on.  

Sorry for not being here it was not my choice to go to Texas it was my Job.  Still here working of a slow laptop.  And trying to keep up with the tropics while I'm in a school.

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- [jc]

Gordon Making Landfall
07:51 PM EDT - 17 September 2000 | Twenty-three Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 07:41 PM 09-18 EDT

Gordon making landfall around Cedar Key, Florida. Looks like the NHC was pretty close on this track.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS.

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- [jc]

Hurricane Warnings up
10:55 PM EDT - 16 September 2000 | Thirty-nine Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 06:25 PM 09-17 EDT

Hurricane Warnings now up Anna Maria Island Northward to Ochlockonee River.

Will Gordon strengthen or will he stay about the same?  At this time the experts feel Gordon will not strengthen much but do not let your guard down yet.  Anything can happen. Folks on the west coast of Florida need to keep a close watch and start getting anything that will blow around on your property secured. Even those inland a bit need to start doing this also, if you have not already.  It's always better to be safe than sorry.  And listen to your local officals for any evacuation orders and stay tuned to official forecasts.

This will be our last news update until I get to Texas or Mike somehow gets on.  

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- [jc]

Gordon Now a Hurricane
06:07 PM EDT - 16 September 2000 | Thirty-one Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 08:25 PM 09-17 EDT

The 5:45 Tropical update just stated Gordon is now a Hurricane. Live Chat tonight at 9 pm EDT Click on "live Chat" on the Nav bar to the left. Where is Gordon going to make landfall that is the big question and how strong will he be?

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- [jc]

Gordon
10:53 AM EDT - 16 September 2000 | Fifty-six Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 12:52 AM 09-17 EDT

update 2:30: Tropical Storm Warnings in effect from Bonito Beach to Suwanee River.
update Noon: Recon has found Gordon's pressure to be 986mb. A drop of 6mb. Gordon is strengthening.

Sorry for the Headline mistake. Gordon is still a Tropical Storm with 65mph winds.  Hurricane watches have been extended Suwanee River to Apalachicola.  Intensification is expected and Gordon should be a Hurricane soon. The NHC still feels it will landfall around the Big Bend, but that is subject to change. I still feel the track will move more east. What do you think?

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- [jc]

Florence, Gordon & TD#12
10:55 PM EDT - 15 September 2000 | Twenty-eight Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 11:13 AM 09-16 EDT

5 am Update

Gordon still a Tropical Storm as of 5am, although we all are pretty sure it will become a Hurricane and it WILL make landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast. There are still a few important questions. How strong will Gordon get before landfall and what city/town is the target.  Hurricane watch still in effect on Florida's west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwanee River.  All folks from Louisianna southward should closley montitor Gordon. The orange background means Florida is under a Hurricane Watch. When it becomes a Hurricane Warning it will be RED.

  Original 11 pm update

Newly formed Tropical Storm Gordon now in the Gulf.  Still up in the air in which direction he will head.  I favor more of an east north east track than the current track of the National Hurricane Center.  It all has to do with the speed of forward motion. Looks like the upper half of the west coast of Florida needs to keep a close eye on Gordon.  Keep in mind that this is just my prediction for now.  Things could change as we all know.  This year has been a extremely hard  hurricane season to forecast. Hurricane Watch in effect for portions of the west coast of Floirda FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANEE RIVER 

Florence still a Tropical Storm heading in the general direction of Bermuda.  Hurricane Watch in effect for the Island of Bermuda.  Florence still has the potential to become a hurricane again, so folks on the Island start preparing.

Tropical Depression #12 heading towards the Caribbean Islands some strengthening is forecasted and this is another system we need to keep an eye on. Could this be Helne??  

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- [jc]

- [jc]

TD#11, Florence, and More
03:49 PM EDT - 15 September 2000 | Fourty-four Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 11:05 PM 09-15 EDT

Tropical Storm Florence is moving slowly toward Bermuda. Tropical Storm warnings are up for it.

TD#11 (Possibly Gordon later tonight or tomorrow) has reformed its center, from all indications I can see. A little to the North and East of the 11AM position. This makes things interesting for the Eastern Gulf Coast. Folks along there will want to watch this, along with everyone else in the Gulf coast.

East of the Caribbean islands, a new wave is looking good to form into TD#12 fairly soon (tomorrow perhaps).

Lot's going on, and tons of speculation with TD#11 abounds. Because of some shear, Florida is getting some offshoot rain from TD#11 already. But the core will not get close until Monday or Tuesday, I believe. All the Gulf must continue to watch this system. A complex situation is arising, so be ready to expect the unexpected.

I personally will be out of town until very late Sunday night, so the page is turned over completely to John until then. (I may get on once or twice over the weekend, but I wouldn't count on it.) On Sunday afternoon, John is heading to Texas, so there will be some time where we will not be able to make updates. (Until late Sunday night). The site will still run with all the automated code, and the comment areas will as well.

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- [mac]

Throw a Dart...
09:16 AM EDT - 15 September 2000 | Fourty-six Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 04:45 PM 09-15 EDT

2PM Mini Update:
The center of TD#11 appears to be reforming a little to the north and east of the current official position. Also... The wave East of the Caribbean islands is looking very good this afternoon. We may have three tropical systems to track at once very soon. -- The quick pop ups should return later in the day. (See Eric Blake's Atlantic Tropical Weather Center for alternate advisory sources, or many other links that we have.)

Original Update:
The models are less useful than that this morning with TD#11. It really is wide open for speculation right now. We won't know much until tonight probably.

The center is still questionable, and the shearing going on as well as the general pattern around it make for any predictions to be pretty much a guessing game. To reiterate, the entire Gulf coast needs to watch this system. (I'm personally leaning toward the Eastern Gulf including the West coast of Florida, but that is just a dart throw itself.)

The folks in Tampa agree:

THIS WILL BE A VERY TOUGH MARINE FORECAST. EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF TD 11. IF THE AVN IS RIGHT WE COULD GET SOME 4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS BY LATE SUNDAY. IF THE CANADIAN MODEL IS RIGHT SEAS COULD GET EVEN LARGER THAN THAT. OF COURSE YOU CAN PRETTY MUCH THROW A DART AT A MAP AND GET ABOUT AS GOOD OF OUTPUT AS THE MODELS THIS MORNING. I WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...WHICH PRETTY MUCH AGREES WITH THE ETA...EXCEPT FOR TAKING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. BUT I WILL LEAVE THE DISCLAIMER STATEMENT IN THE FORECAST...BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT THE LOCAL CRS READS AND IN THE SYNOPSIS.

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- [mac]

TD#11 Over Land or Not?
05:23 PM EDT - 14 September 2000 | Twenty-nine Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 09:28 AM 09-15 EDT

An interesting occurance is happening with Tropical Depression Eleven. Mainly the fact that its Low Level Circulation Center (LLCC) is over land, but the mid level circulation is over water. Since its a relatively weak depression, this brings out some interesting possibilities. Officially the low level center is over land, and surface observations verify this.
1. It could die out over night over land. This is possible, and from Debby earlier in the year it can be shown to happen. Not a likely solution, but possible none-the-less.
2. It could keep its circulation center and move back over land and eventually form into a tropical storm. (Slightly more likely).
3. Most interesting of all, it could reform its center under the much better defined mid-level circulation out over the water now and slowly work its way into the central Gulf. This possibility allows it to become a hurricane. And the official statement from the NHC has it somewhere between 2 and 3, and calls for a hurricane to form later on.

Therefore, tomorrow will be an interesting day to watch this system. Folks along the Gulf could see anything from a damp rainstorm, to hurricane force winds sometime next week. I'm tending to think this will be a slow mover, and taunt us for a while. Expect the unexpected with this system. Models are virtually no help at the moment because the center is questionable. The entire Gulf needs to watch it.

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- [mac]

TD#11 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean
11:20 AM EDT - 14 September 2000 | Fourty-nine Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 06:30 PM 09-14 EDT

2:30PM Mini Update:
Recon has placed the system a little to the north and east of the previous position, which makes the time that the disturbance is over land less. Things are becoming interesting with this system for sure. I think it's going to have a hard time staying together the rest of the day, but tomorrow we could see something entirely different. Speculation aside, everyone around the Gulf will want to watch it closely.

Original Update:
Nearly moving over the Yucatan Peninsula, this system will be on the minds of many in the Gulf states over the next few days. Predictions vary from West Gulf to Florida. With the history of this odd season behind us, I will say that anything could happen. We'll be watching it closely. Hopefully a better idea of what will occur will happen later.

Most questions come from the center of circulation's location. Will it move over the peninsula? Will the center shift about. It's moving toward the Gulf, which allows it to strengthen. A cold front will be closeby by the weekend, which adds to the complexity.

Where will it go, and how strong will it be is pure speculation at the moment. The models aren't up to par yet with it. (mainly because of the location of the center)

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- [mac]

Florence and West Caribbean
11:42 AM EDT - 13 September 2000 | Sixty-four Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 11:14 AM 09-14 EDT

Today not much has changed. Florence is still a minimal hurricane spinning of the coast, and still is expected to move away from us eventually.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft failed to find a Low Level Circulation Center in the West Caribbean, but found a fairly impressive Mid-Level one. I expect it still to form within the next day or two. If it forms, things become interesting for the Gulf. Including Florida. However, until something really does develop, speculation of that sort is counter productive. Still, this system should be watched closely.

The system in the Central Atlantic still has a few days yet to develop or not.

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- [mac]

Flo a Hurricane. Activity Picking Up.
04:50 PM EDT - 12 September 2000 | Thirty-five Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 11:59 AM 09-13 EDT

As stated earlier, Florence is now a hurricane, but still is not threatening to land. However the West Caribbean System still bears watching as well as a system in the Central Atlantic.

More Later..

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- [mac]

Florence Nearly Hurricane and Western Caribbean
01:50 PM EDT - 12 September 2000 | Nine Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 04:11 PM 09-12 EDT

Today's big stories are the wave in the western Caribbean which could rapidly develop over the next few days (Probably more of a threat than Florence). However, Florence itself is looking very well and is for all practical purposes, a hurricane. Officially still a Tropical Storm, but its characteristics make it a sure bet to be upgraded later today.

Needless to say, Florence is still stagnating and moving very little. All indications say that it will move out to sea eventually. We'll still watch it.

Focus should be shifting toward the Western Caribbean, as the disturbance there has a very good chance to be upgraded today. It will eventually impact land, so I consider it more of a threat. Aircraft Recon is going out there to check and see if a definite circulation exists. If one exists now, it will form today. If not, it within the next two days.
Development Chances for this wave today:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [------------------*---]

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- [mac]

Tropical Storm Florence
02:31 PM EDT - 11 September 2000 | Thirty-three Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 01:43 PM 09-12 EDT

Florence has formed already from TD#10. It's basically drifting at this point, and is a little stronger than I thought it would be (60MPH winds).

Since it is drifting somewhat westward right now, it will have to be watched. I still think it will eventually head out to sea without affecting land. But because slow moving storms are difficult to predict, we must be vigilant.

More to come...

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- [mac]

TD#10 Forms off the East Coast
11:01 AM EDT - 11 September 2000 | Nine Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 02:38 PM 09-11 EDT

No sooner did the last story go up than the new depression formed.

Right now it's not moving much at all. And may drift westward a bit, but eventually it should go out to sea. The upper level conditions don't favor it getting much stronger than a weak-mid Tropical Storm. Nevertheless, I expect to see Florence later today.

NRL Info for TD#10

More to come...

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- [mac]

More Atlantic Action
10:26 AM EDT - 11 September 2000 | Four Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 11:00 AM 09-11 EDT

We're back, and this week we have a lot to watch this week. We have something worth watching southwest of Bermuda that has a really good chance of becoming TD#10 today. We'll be watching it today.

Another area in the east Atlantic could form over the next several days as well.

More to come later.

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- [mac]

TD#9 Forms In Gulf soon to move inland
08:47 PM EDT - 08 September 2000 | Fourteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 10:33 AM 09-11 EDT

At 5AM, TD#9 has left us.

Surprise Surprise, #9 forms in the Gulf. Moving into land areas causing a lot of Rainfall near the Texas/Lousiana coast.

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- [mac]

Awakening
11:32 AM EDT - 08 September 2000 | Five Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 07:50 PM 09-08 EDT

Conditions are changing, and we now have two things to watch closely in the Atlantic. And two more worth keeping an eye on as well.

Firstly, the system predicted to be TD#9 a few days ago is suddenly looking a lot better again this morning. It's just east of the Leeward islands, and hurricane hunters are going out to check on it later today. Folks in the Caribbean still should have been watching it.
Development Chances for this wave today:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [------------*---------]

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [-------*--------------]

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- [mac]

Sure Shear
08:57 AM EDT - 07 September 2000 | Fourteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 11:47 AM 09-08 EDT

The system mentioned yesterday is having trouble developing because of shear. This is the story of the last few weeks. The shear in this area has killed several potential developing systems, and this one, along with fighting some dry air intake, is undergoing something similar .

Still, it should be watched.
New Development Chances bar:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [--------*-------------]

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- [mac]

Another Heads up for the Caribbean
12:41 PM EDT - 06 September 2000 | Sixteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 11:04 PM 09-06 EDT

At 5PM. it wasn't upgraded, and it still may not be. Here's the updated chance bit:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [--------------*-------]

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [-----------------*----]

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- [mac]

Nothing Threatening
05:41 PM EDT - 05 September 2000 | Twenty-three Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 12:32 PM 09-06 EDT

Amazingly, there still isn't all that much to talk about this week. Labor Day weekend had Ernesto come and go without a problem. And this week the waves have persisted, but have not strengthen. We still may see a depression this week, but once again nothing immediately threatening anywhere. Interesting, it is, being nearly the peak of the season (15th).

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- [mac]

Ernesto and Shear
09:50 AM EDT - 03 September 2000 | Twenty-six Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 04:57 PM 09-05 EDT

What originally made me go with the prediction of no named storms this weekend was the fact that shear was still pretty bad in the area that Ernesto was trying to form. It managed to anyway, but since then has been barely holding on. It's a definite fish spinner system as it heads toward that direction.

More interesting to me is the system in the Central East Atlantic that could form sometime this week. We'll wait and see.

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- [mac]

Tropical Storm Ernesto
07:55 AM EDT - 02 September 2000 | Seven Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 05:33 PM 09-02 EDT

Tropical depression eight has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto faster than expected. Ernesto is becoming better organized even though it is encountering some southerly sheer. Most models predict the sheer will die off soon giving Ernesto a better chance to strengthen. All eyes on Ernesto!

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- [jc]

Tropical Depression #8 Forms
11:29 PM EDT - 01 September 2000 | Three Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 04:23 AM 09-02 EDT

Tropical depression #8 forms east of the Leeward Islands! 
I guess Mike was wrong in thinking nothing would form this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center believes there will minimal strengthening over the next few day's.  I believe it will at least be a named storm by Sunday or late Saturday night.  For the track that is what we are here for is to try to figure it out.   So lets keep up the good work in the comments section.

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- [jc]

No Development this Weekend
05:02 AM EDT - 01 September 2000 | Fourty Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 10:34 PM 09-01 EDT

I don't see anything happening for this weekend, maybe into next week a little, but until then enjoy the weekend.

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- [jc]

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

August
08:59 AM EDT - 30 August 2000 | Thirty-four Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 09:19 PM 08-31 EDT

I think we will not see any more named systems this month.

August was a strange montth for storms, and memorable for these reasons:

1. Alberto...
This one just hung around forever going to major hurricane status back to tropical storm and up again, did a loop and went out. It was a very long lived storm and the most interesting thing this month.

2. Beryl...
This was pretty much doomed from the start, its center was placed too far east of where it actually was, and therefore went into the Mexican coast way before any damage could have been done. Hurricane watches/warnings were put up as a precaution, but were never really needed.

3. Chris
Chris was the storm that more than a few jumped the gun on big time. Saying that it would affect Florida way way to early. When in fact, it died before even reaching the Caribbean due to shear. I never thought it would make it, but the next one gets the oddball of the decade award...

4. Debby
This one threw everyone for a loop, even those who said it would go into the gulf were wrong, all of us were wrong. It had the potential to me a mess for Florida, and winded up just going kaput north of Hispaniola never to recover. Head scratching, indeed, but definitely a small miracle that it did this.

I don't see anything happening this week as far as named storms go. I'm pretty much willing to write off the storm off the east coast, and if the one in the east Atlantic develops into a named storm, it won't be in August. So we go out of August almost as quietly as we went into it.

We've got a new webcam: Barb & Wendy in Winter Springs have set one up.

Also Joseph Johnston in Mobile has redone his page and added a very nice collection of photos on Mobile, Alabama's hurricane history.

JimF has added some impressive lightning photos and Irene photos to his webcam page.

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- [mac]

Unfavorable for Significant Development
08:57 AM EDT - 29 August 2000 | Eighteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 05:57 PM 08-29 EDT

This pretty much sums up the Atlantic at the moment. This is unusual for late August. Things could change rapidly, however, so it still requires watching. The peak of the Season is in the middle of September.

The system east of Florida has this Upper Level Shear problem as well.

Things will change again, so keep watch.

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- [mac]

Activity Southeast of Florida
08:36 AM EDT - 28 August 2000 | Thirty-two Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 05:16 PM 08-28 EDT

Not much happened over the weekend, but at the start of this week we have a system southeast of Florida that has a chance to develop a little. If it does expect a little wetness around Florida.

Other than this area, there isn't much going on. The wave in the Caribbean is getting sheared to death, and not surprisingly, Debby never came back from the dead.

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- [mac]

Why the Projections Failed
07:05 AM EDT - 25 August 2000 | Twenty-seven Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 08:55 AM 08-28 EDT

Forecasting is a crap shoot. When things are going like usual, it's fairly easy to predict like something. But, all the forecasting models dropped the ball Debby for the same reasons the models are wrong when forecasting any weather.

o The atmosphere is very complex, and even though the models use high levels of numerical and mathematical know-how, it cannot possibly catch every cause and effect that the atmosphere can do.

o The data that goes into the models could be wrong, or woefully incomplete. This is especially a problem over the oceans. The recon planes like the Gulfstream Jet help this along, but it's still less than optimal.

o Mother Nature is Mother Nature. Things happen. What Debby did was unforseen by everyone until the day it happened. Forecasters are not "Besserweiser" or know it alls. They are human, and just watch and predict and have nearly unlimited pardons for bombed forecasts. The NHC did a stellar job despite what happened. (I bet Debby is one of those they would rather forget happened at all, though)

This is what makes storms interesting to track, when they do something unexpected. There was every reason to believe it would have affected South Florida, but it had other options in mind.

The Atlantic is unusually hostile right now for development most anywhere. The wave in the East Atlantic already has died to this, and Ex-Debby is still having troubles reorganizing. (It's trying though)

The season is not over. We have had 4 named storms so far, and last year we had two by this time. September is the peak month, so it's not even close do being done with.

Thanks for the many people who did visit this site when Debby was considered a threat. Our goal is to give you opinions and allow you to view the data yourself so that you can make your own informed decisions. I hope it worked out.

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- [mac]

Debby Dissipates
10:54 AM EDT - 24 August 2000 | Twenty-seven Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 09:40 AM 08-25 EDT

Debby's last advisory was issued at 11PM. There is no longer a closed circulation so it is been downgraded to a mere tropical wave. The outside chance for regeneration remains, but for the moment there are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.

A far cry from yesterday morning, for sure. But good news for folks on the East Coast of Floida.

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- [mac]

Debby Falls Apart
11:19 PM EDT - 23 August 2000 | Six Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 08:47 AM 08-24 EDT

5AM Update

Debby is still barely holding on just south of the eastern edge of Cuba. The NHC thinks that it could restrengthen later after going through some shear. So it may degrade to an untracked wave later but has a chance to reform and affect the Gulf somehow.

Expect the unexpected.

Original Update:
:Not much to write tonight other than the fact that Debby is looking very very poor this evening. It's very hard to see where the storm center is on the infrared satellite (In fact there is no clue whatsoever if you hadn't seen previous images). The surprise "kick" that the low level circulation received was not forecast. Therefore Debby has to now cross Cuba if it wants to Survive. If it does survive it then has the chance to regenerate. What a change from last night. This is amazing in itself, yet another oddity in the year of oddities this hurricane season.

It did affect Florida by causing Evacuations and school closings in the keys, and it may not be done yet. Very long range models suggest if it survives, that it get carried back into the gulf.

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Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Debby Weakens Temporarily
11:08 AM EDT - 23 August 2000 | Sixty-four Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 12:55 AM 08-24 EDT

5PM Update:

The NHC lowered windspeed to 50MPH, but Debby is still not looking good at all. If it goes into Cuba I doubt it can survive. The other choices are going north or south of Cuba, and that's about a 50/50 shot for either. Debby did the unexpected, will the unexpected happen again?

1PM Update:

Mandatory Evacuation Ordered for all non-Florida Keys residents in the Florida Keys effective at Noon Today

Debby is encountering more sheer and land effects, and isn't looking as good as it did before. The center of cirulation is on the west side of the convection, so it is having trouble again. Debby looks like it won't restrengthen until tomorrow. This is an unexpected twist in the story of Debby (or at least, I didn't expect this) and the storm may wind up repositioning itself to survive, if it survives. Thanks Steve H. & Brian for bringing this to our attention.

Alberto has become Extratropical as well and is no longer being tracked.

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- [mac]

Models Back Toward the West
06:48 AM EDT - 23 August 2000 | Thirteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 12:15 PM 08-23 EDT

This morning the South Florida / Gulf Scenarios chances just went up. It a rather drastic change from yesterday, almost all of the models now take the Storm westward into the Gulf of Mexico. However, these seem extreme (and already a bit off), so that leaves the middle ground, which could include South Florida and the Keys.

There are a few possibilties:

From one extreme to the other:

1. It does go into the gulf. (Not Out of the Question)
2. It travels into the Florida Keys. (I expect some voluntary Evacucations happening here today or tomorrow).
3. It could hit South Florida around Miami.
4. It could enter north of Miami... Basically the worst thing imaginable for Emergency management (and the Insurance Industry). There is a fair chance that Debby could enter and travel up through the state of Florida as a major hurricane.
5. It could skirt the East coast of Florida ala David 1979 and eventually landfall somewhere north of Florida.
6. A miracle could happen and turn it out to sea.

The most likely answer lies somewhere in the middle of those. Speculation is rampant now, and I'm sure that it will cause a lot more headaches as time passes. Indeed the 5AM official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has numbers 3 and 4 as real possibilites.

Therefore, keep watch and take any advice local authorities give you. Don't take our word for it, listen to the pros at the NHC. And pepare. And don't panic nor let hype consume you -- stay informed.

Please leave a comment if you hear something from local media, government, etc. on Evacuations, General Storm Information, or all around good tips. Thanks. Today and early tomorrow will be decision day for a lot of people. Friday will start to be action day (timelines could change, plan for this too). And as Jim William's said last night, remember that sometimes friends and family can wind up being more of a hurricane themselves.

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Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Hurricane Debby North of Puerto Rico
02:32 PM EDT - 22 August 2000 | Fourty-one Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 08:38 AM 08-23 EDT

11PM Update:
Debby continues its just slightly north of due west motion, and the longer this holds the worse this means for South Florida. The Gulf of Mexico track can't be ruled out yet either. More or less my previous thinking remains the same. The intensity of Debby when it approaches is conservatively estimated around a Category 3 storm -- * the potential is there for stronger *.

Tomorrow I would not be surprised to see the Florida Keys start to take some action (like suggesting tourists leave), not because they think it will go there, but rather because of the long time it would take to evacuate if it did.

Highest Risk Zone still lies between Miami and West Palm Beach, FL. Very subject to change, see you tomorrow.

PLEASE FOLLOW the advice from local authorities. Folks in Florida will have time to prepare between now and Friday. So have a plan ready if the storm decides to head your way. Use official sources and local media for more information.

9PM Update:
Debby has gone from a West NW motion to more of a general westward motion at this hour, which is plain to see on the Puerto Rico radar image. (Debby is beginning to move out of range of this radar) It's maintaining the 75MPH windspeed and probably will until tomorrow. The forward motion has slowed a bit to 18MPH.

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City is doing an audio broadcast now until 11PM tonight.

Original Update:
As these series of images show, Hurricane Debby is now skirting along the northern coast of Puerto Rico. Luckilly for them, most all of the convection is on the Northeast side. It is starting to wrap around, though, which would indicate it trying to become better organized.

The future track is leaning away from the Gulf scenario (can't count it out yet, though) and more toward the South Florida northward scenario. Basically what was said earlier today on the page. We will continue to watch it.

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Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Hurricane Debby
07:22 AM EDT - 22 August 2000 | Twenty-nine Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 03:25 PM 08-22 EDT

11AM Udpate:

The Bahamas has put up Hurricane Warnings for the Acklins, Crooked, Inaguas, Ragged, Turks, Caicos, and Mayanguana Islands. (Most of the SE Bahamas)

Debby is still a minimal hurricane, but shows signs of strengthening now. The track will take it oh so close offshore north of Puerto Rico. The thinking for the remainder of the future track remains unchanged from the original Update.

Original Update:

Right now Hurricane Debby is over the northeastern Caribbean islands. Very near St. Maarten now and still moving West Northwest. God bless those in the islands, weather the storm well.

Hurricane Watches are now up for the extreme Southeast Bahamas.

What of the future? It's still a little questionable, and note it go either way from here, but my thinking puts it continuing West northwest and passing Hispaniola just to the north (but close) and offshor a bit to the Northeast coast of Cuba late Thursday and approaching South Florida on Friday. Caveats here include, not turning north and going into the Gulf, and turning north affecting Central Florida or further up the SE coast. The most likely includes an approach to South Florida and possibly turning up the state once within. Models however are leaning toward the south. So the Gulf scenario has a decent chance too. However, past the point of "near Florida" it becomes speculation to the Nth order.

How strong will it be? This depends a lot on how much, if at all, it goes through the larger islands (like PR and Hispaniola). If it does, it will be weaker, if it does not it will most likely slow down Tomorrow or Thursday and be allowed to strengthen. I have no idea what type of system Debby will be when it approaches Florida. It has the potential to be a major, but I'm not totally convinced of that yet.

Debby will affect Florida in some way somewhere during Friday and this weekend. Know this, and plan for this. I realize that is a broad statement, but it's impossible to say any more with confidence yet. And listen to local Emergency Management, Media, and other official sources. You can help us out by letting us know what you hear via local media or anything by leaving a comment here to help seperate information from misinformation. (A lot of it happens when an impending storm approaches)

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [jc]

Warnings For Near-Hurricane Debby
10:45 AM EDT - 21 August 2000 | Fifty-seven Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 07:10 AM 08-22 EDT

11PM Update:

Debby remains a Tropical Storm for the 11PM advisory, but with pressures dropping and an eye trying to form, it should be a hurricane by 5AM (if not sooner). Forecast track beyond that remains mostly the same.

5PM Update:

Hurricane Warnings are now up for Puerto Rico. Thinking on the system remains relatively unchanged from earlier.

Original Update:

Hurricane Warnings are up for the islands between from the south Guadeloupe up and to the north and west to the Us Virgin Islands. Hurricane Watches remain for Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Barbados.

Debby's windspeed is now at 60 KT (70MPH) which is just under hurricane strength. And is stregthening...

Not much else to add from the previous article, except to note that the official track now takes it over Hispaniola (still subject to change)

John and I both plan to be on our Live Chat at 8PM Eastern (01:00 GMT) for at least one hour tonight. Even though we aren't there always, feel free to use it anytime. At this same time Jim Williams will be doing a live audio broadcast over at Hurricane City we will be listening as well.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Debby Goes West
08:54 AM EDT - 21 August 2000 | Seven Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 11:28 AM 08-21 EDT

Debby is doing its best to confuse us right now. It has stayed weaker (although I expect this to change as it gets closer to the islands), and it has moved more west than I thought it would. Which does bring it closer to the islands, and now nearly inevitable that it will cross right over them or just to the north, but not north enough. It's increased forward speed too. Tropical Storm Watches are up for many of the islands in the NE Caribbean. And for Puerto Rico, St. Maarten, and the US Virgin Islands, we have a hurricane watch. I'm going to hack on the cfhc news code a bit and hope to have San Juan weather updates pop up on the main page shortly.

What does this mean for the future of Debby? Well it means a lot of questions, there is a good chance now that it will go through the islands and Hispaniola or to just to the south. The most likely scenario is that it still could pop north. Will it pull something simialr to Georges? Could be. We'll have to watch, because I expect things could change. Taking a look at the various models this morning shows nearly every possibiltiy in that time frame. (North into the Bahamas and near South Florida, South into the Gulf, or through Hispaniola and Cuba)

The only question now for the islands, is how strong will it be when it gets there. Good question, and one I cannot answer confidently. Prepare for a hurricane, a category 1 or 2 I would imagine, and hope for better (like just a Tropical Storm). The best thing to do now is to not take my advice and rather listen to official sources and follow the advice of the local emergency management agencies.

John and I both plan to be on our Live Chat at 8PM Eastern (01:00 GMT) for at least one hour tonight.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Debby and More
11:02 PM EDT - 20 August 2000 | Five Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 05:06 PM 08-21 EDT

Chat Update:

John and I both will try to be in our live chat area around 8PM EST (1Z) tomorrow for at least an hour. This may be the same time that Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will do an audio show. (Usually he waits for landfalls so it may not be tomorrow) If it is, we will be listening as well.

Debby Update:

Debby looks interesting, and I'm thinking the center is just a bit southwest of the central dense overcast area. Seems like the ridge ridge will last for two days or so, therefore it should continue toward the west northwest until the end of the NHC's forecast time period. I think it'll be around 80 knots in 72 hours or so.

With this thinking the likely activity puts it just skirting to the north of the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Thomas etc and maybe the Northeast coast of Puerto Rico. With tropical storm force winds, caution being that even a slight shift to the left could cause hurricane conditions. The strength of Debby also depends on how close it gets to the Islands. (If it stays away it should get stronger)

The timing is critical later on, for any eventual US threat. It's possible that anywhere from the Florida Keys to Cape Hatteras could see something from this storm (with slightly more risk to Florida and the Bahamas). I know this is incredibly vague, but it's the best I can speculate right now. There still is the question that needs to be asked, which is will it be a good scare (Ala Floyd for Florida last year) or will it actually make landfall? It depends on when the next trough approaches the east coast. It is just too early to tell. For what it's worth, current trends (highly subject to change) put the storm near South Florida sometime on Friday. The only sure bet is that it will cause headaches for the folks in the National Hurricane Center (and us too).

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Debby On The Move
10:49 AM EDT - 20 August 2000 | Thirty-seven Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 10:55 PM 08-20 EDT


5pm Update 20 August 2000

Hurricane Watch issued by the Government of the Netherlands Antilles.  Watch for St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius.   Tropical Storm Warnings for Antigu, Barbuda and Anguilla. Watch may be upgraded to a hurricane watch later tonight or Monday morning.

As expected, tropical depression #7 is now Tropical Storm Debby! 

Heading toward the northern Caribbean Islands.

Intensification is predicted and is expected to be a Cat 1 Hurricane by Monday morning

Keep in mind to Refresh (Reload) the news page often especially during update times and when the important weather statements above do not completely load up.  Mike is working on that problem.

I'm not going to make any predictions on the strength and direction at this time, I will leave all that up to you in the comments. For those who do not read the "other peoples comments" there are some very good predictions by qualified folks who post from time to time. Just remember this site is not an official weather source!  Check it out.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [jc]

TD#7 Holds
10:55 PM EDT - 19 August 2000 | Six Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 10:28 AM 08-20 EDT

7 AM - 20 August 2000 Update:
The NHC is still having trouble finding the center of TD#7, so it remains a TD until 11AM. The forecast track has shifted a tad to the north and now it affects the extreme northeast Caribbean islands. It really depends on where the actual center really is, so all those Islands need to watch it closely.

The errors in the track could be fairly large one way or the other because of the problems with finding the center.


Original Update:

Tropical Depression #7 holds its name for the moment because of uncertainties with the center. The official forecast currently projects "Debby" to cross into the Caribbean Islands and eventually threaten Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The morning will tell more, because the NHC is not quite certain enough to upgrade it yet. (If the thunderstorm activity is over the center now, then it is probably close to a hurricane now)

In any case, the stage is set for solid strengthening and the ridiging will most likely keep it moving WNW so folks in these islands should start to prepare over the next day or two in case it heads toward them. Hurricane Watches for some islands could come as early as 11AM tomorrow. Listen to official sources for more information there.

Beyond that it is still a maybe south of Cuba or South of the Bahamas (the latter would be more dangerous for the US). It is important to remind you that all of this is still in the speculation stage this far out.

Alberto still is hanging around. Remnants of Chris are well, there. The wave in the East Atlantic will be watched later on, and that's all thats substantial right now.

Debby has the potential to be a "classic" hurricane in the future.

One of the better Meterologists I am familiar with (for Hurricane predictions) is now issuing web updates at Snonut's Hurricane Reports. Very worth checking out during the next few days and later on.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

TD#7 Forms East of Caribbean
04:57 PM EDT - 19 August 2000 | Thirteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 12:53 AM 08-20 EDT

It's forecast to go through the islands and wind up south of Puerto Rico in 72 hours. Folks in the Caribbean will have to deal with it in roughly three days or so. Any movement to the north would put it into Puerto Rico. Beyond that it is speculation, but a threat to Florida or the SE US is possible.

It could go south of Cuba or just south of the Bahamas. It it winds up north of Hispanola then watch out. Very important for us here to watch this too. It will become Debby later on.

More to come later...

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Chris Dissipates
10:59 AM EDT - 19 August 2000 | Nine Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 03:50 PM 08-19 EDT

12:30PM Update:
The remnants of Chris will have to fight off shear for another day to two days. If it survives (it may not) it has a better chance of coming closer to the southeast US. Still, I'm not convinced of either happening right now.

The wave east of that in the middle of the Atlantic is looking good. Very good. In fact I would call it TD#7 now. Officialy, it will become a tropical depression (maybe even Tropical Storm) later in the afternoon. The main thing about this one is that it would be highly unlikely for this system to not affect the Lesser Antilles. The odds favor it going over the islands right now. So folks there should really be on watch.

Original Update:


Chris could not hold on. When aircraft recon came back there was not much of a system to find, so the NHC has stopped issuing advisories on it. It may regenerate later, but for now Chris is gone.

The wave east of that still isn't a depression, and Alberto is flexing itself again up to 105MPH winds.

Another wave has emerged from the African coast and also has a chance to form down the road.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Chris has Trouble and the Future
09:19 AM EDT - 19 August 2000 | Two Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 09:53 AM 08-19 EDT

Chris was weakened yesterday after forming into a storm. It encountered enough sheer to make dissipation possible. I think it will hold together long enough, though, to make it through. It won't gain strength until it is out of this influence. It is looking just a little better this morning. It's future track is still in question, though.

My current feeling still takes it to the north and not near the US, but there still exists some counter evidence that makes it worth watching. If Chris survives the shearing and it slips to the west, then this will become even more of an issue. But situations like these are why we track these storms so closely.

It's not an issue for the Caribbean islands now. But the next potential TD is, it's likely that later today TD#7 will form and since it is further south, will have to be watched closely by the Caribbean. Any longer term than that is speculation and not constructive beyond the usual, "we'll have to watch it" line.

A reminder from an Insurance Adjuster:

It's time to review your insurance coverage, making sure that you are ship shape. It is distressing to see situations, following a disaster, where coverage is limited or non-existent simply because the property owner didn't prepare before hand.

An example of a delayed adjustment could arise from your mortgagee situation. Does your agent and the carrier know the identity of your current mortgagee and of all mortgagees, if there is more than one?

Any check that the insurance company issues, for damages to your dwelling or building, will name the mortgagee company, that is on their records, as a co payee. If that mortgagee has changed it can sometimes take weeks to get a new check issued payable to the correct mortgagee.

Also, if your mortgage has been recently paid off and you are mortgage free, let your agent know, now. Otherwise, you could still receive a check with your former mortgagee's name on it, delaying your use of the funds.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Tropical Storm Chris Forms
10:47 AM EDT - 18 August 2000 | Twenty-four Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 01:48 PM 08-19 EDT

3PM Update:

The system east of Chris has finally gotten its act together and probably will be TD#7 tonight or early tomorrow. The NE Caribbean will want to watch this one very very closely.

Original Update
East of the lesser Antilles Islands we now have Chris.

No watches or warnings yet, but there may be later. It's important to note that the official forecast track takes it safely north of the Caribbean islands.

The feeling is that it will skirt the islands to the north, and keep on its west northwest motion. We will have to watch this one into next week for sure. The earlier article talks more about it. My current feeling is that it will turn north, but my thoughts don't always agree with that. This case I see enough counter-evidence to suggest that it may wind up near the Florida coast somewhere next week. However, since a real solid position and movement hasn't been found yet (Recon hasn't been there yet) its all speculation. Therefore it should remain under close watch by everyone until it makes its move.

Keep watch until it is NORTH of your latitude. We will have plenty of time to do that here in the US.

Alberto is back to Hurricane strength, again.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

TD#6 and the Guess Game
06:38 AM EDT - 18 August 2000 | Eleven Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 01:28 PM 08-18 EDT

What most people want to know is, "Is storm X going to affect my area?" The short answer is its impossible to know. The longer answer involves models, weather reports, climatology and endless satellite loop watching.

TD#6 (and likely the wave east of it) are those type of systems that can get folks going with predictions. Since both of them have a chance to affect the US.

One model (which I don't like because it tends to overdo things with tropical systems) is the MRF model. This had a system just off the Southeast coast in the end of its forecast period. I don't buy that. Other than that model, some others show that there may be less amplification to the east coast trough approaching at the time when the storm would be closer. This would allow it to get closer to the SE US and possibly affect us. It requires that TD#6 stay toward the south mostly. If that happens we will need to watch it. It is too early to tell exactly where it may wind up. The GFDL also is further south than it was yesterday.

So TD#6 is going to be watched closely, it's current track is in a state of flux, but it does have the chance (50/50) right now of affecting the Caribbean islands and eventually the US. So it will bear watching.

If I were to go by climatology alone, I would favor it not affecting us. But that's not the only thing to watch in the list I gave. There are few reports, so it does not apply much yet. (Recon goes out to TD#6 today, most likely making it the next Tropical Storm when it reports)

The last on my list suggested list, staring at satellite loops suggests that the system will nudge just north of the islands. This is the least "scientific" method, however.

Those aren't the only possible things, but those are the bigger ones.

Bottom line, folks in the northeast Caribbean will still have to watch both systems, and we may in the future.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

TD#6 Forms East of Caribbean
04:56 PM EDT - 17 August 2000 | Four Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 06:49 AM 08-18 EDT

Tropical Depression Six has formed east of the Lesser Antilles, It is expected to move west Northwest. The official forecast makes it miss the Caribbean islands, but with a lot of doubt, so folks along the Caribbean should keep watch. (Especially NE Carib, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico)

More as it comes.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Heads up Caribbean
11:47 AM EDT - 17 August 2000 | Nineteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 12:16 AM 08-18 EDT

The system east of the Lesser Antilles islands (East of the Caribbean) is looking very good today.
My Development Chances Scale for this wave:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [------------------*---]

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Loopy Alberto
07:29 AM EDT - 16 August 2000 | Twenty-two Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 02:17 PM 08-17 EDT

Alberto is now the only storm being tracked. It is currently fairly weak, but expected to hold steady for a bit. It's doing an anticyclonic loop which is a semi-rare occurance for Atlantic storms. (Last storm to do this was Roxanne, I believe) It will evenetually head back east and away. It is no threat to us. It's just in a prolonged spin-down period.

Alberto gets first dibs today since Beryl is gone and there really isn't much going on elsewhere at the moment.

The waves in the east Atlantic are only looking "ok" this morning. The one nearer to the Caribbean isn't too organized and the one off Africa is only somewhat better. Neither one will form today, but could later if they persist. (If so then the one just west of Africa is more likely)

It's a fair time to remind folks that Hurricane Bret did not form until August 19th last year, so this quiet time really has no significance.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Tropical Storm Beryl Landfalls in Mexico
07:27 AM EDT - 15 August 2000 | Seven Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 03:15 PM 08-18 EDT

Beryl's center was further west than the NHC anticipated, and therefore it was much closer to land. It made landfall overnight in Mexico as a medium range Tropical Storm.

Alberto, in Tropical Storm form, is still in the Atlantic, moving south currently, but far far away from land.

Next chance of development lies to the East Atlantic, but there is noting imminent right now. We'll be watching

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Hurricane Warnings From La Pesca,MX to Baffin Bay, TX
10:59 AM EDT - 14 August 2000 | Twenty-seven Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 01:30 AM 08-16 EDT

Beryl is expected to make landfall as a hurricane.

Folks along the Mexican and Texas coasts will need to listen closely to local official sources as things progress. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with Beryl.

There is an interesting looking area east of Virginia as well (east of the Chesapeake bay area) that requires watching.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

TD#5 Forms in Gulf of Mexico
05:40 PM EDT - 13 August 2000 | Nine Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 12:42 PM 08-14 EDT

Motion stationary but eventually moving northwest, we now have our 5th Tropical Depression of the season. This came back and surprised me the other day, and now it has happened. There was development this weekend :).

Folks along the Western Gulf Coast should be watching it since it has time to strengthen. More will come later. The rest of the Gulf should be aware of it as well. My initial prediction has it somewhere north or near Brownsville, TX in about two-three days. Keep watch.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [jc]

Proved Wrong
04:59 PM EDT - 12 August 2000 | Seven Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 05:37 PM 08-13 EDT

I gave up a little too early on the Gulf system. It now looks like it could become a depression tonight or tomorrow. Mike A. picked up on it before I did.

Anyway, we'll be watching it closely. So much for the weekend prediction, but that's what makes the tropics interesting.

Alberto is amazing, for being so far up north and achieving category 3 status. This season has been really amazing so far even if nothing has made landfall yet.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Decline in Activity
06:22 AM EDT - 12 August 2000 | Nine Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 06:52 PM 08-12 EDT

Most of the storms we've been following the last few days have failed to get organized. The one near the Yucatan did what I thought, it looked good but its position (relative to land) just didn't let anything happen. The former TD#4 and Cape Hatteras waves would have formed days ago if they were to do anything so nothing much happened there, and even the wave off Africa isn't looking too good this morning. (Too far north too soon)

If you really want to make a stretch, the only thing that could develop is the east Atlantic storm. The area east of the SE US remains unorganized (still) and also would be a stretch to consider it for development.

In fact, there is nothing that looks like it will develop this weekend.

However, Hurricane Alberto is a category 3 storm now, and looks very impressive. It's moving northeast toward the central Atlantic. I'm betting it will go extratropical (strong extratropical) and actually affect Europe in some way later on. Alberto is also notable for its extremely large eye. Very unusual for an Atlantic System.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

TD#4 Drops Out
06:55 AM EDT - 11 August 2000 | Fourteen Comments | Read Comments | Newest: 07:42 PM 08-11 EDT

At 11PM last night Tropical Depression 4 dissipated. That small storm could not hold up any longer to outside influences. From the west and east. To the east is the wave area which still hasn't held together well, but still has a chance to form. Aircraft will be checking it out again today. (They did yesterday as well and didn't find anything then).

The area near the Yucatan looks to be close to a repeat of the last Yucatan storm area a few days ago. Therefore, I don't expect much if anything from it, but it'll still require watching.

Alberto is still there, and the Cape Verde wave remains my favored choice for "next development" after it moves west a little.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Oompa Loompa Depression
05:02 AM EDT - 10 August 2000 | Twenty-two Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 11:02 PM 08-10 EDT

Not much has changed since last night. We have this amazing little depression just off our coast. (Amazing in the fact how well defined the circulation is, how small it is, and how just devoid of anything other than low level activity it is -- Truly an oddball system). It's hard to tell without visible pictures, but its close enough to the Melbourne NWS office to see it on radar. It's moving a bit north of west now. But still VERY slowly. If it were a bigger system we'd be feeling it right now. But, it's incredibly small so we aren't.

I'm guessing the center of it will get within 30 miles or so of Cape Canaveral, and then head north. It probably will finally start to get stronger today as well, and may become a tiny Tropical Storm. After that I expect the trough to nudge it up and away from the coast where it will be left behind. After that all bets are off, but I expect it'll drift around a bit and move offshore off the NC coast. In other words, if it does get picked up, and not left behind, then it won't affect land at all. If it does not then it will drift, and I really don't know where it will end up yet. This mini-storm is just strange.

Otherwise. Hurricane Alberto still churns away. the one wave East of the Bahamas is again in very poor shape, and the wave emerging of Africa looks to be the best chance for the next thing.

Canaveral East Buoy Reports (Nearest to TD#4)
Canaveral West Buoy Reports (Nearer to Shore)

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [jc]

Tropical Depression #4 Forms off our Coast
11:08 AM EDT - 09 August 2000 | Twenty-six Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 06:12 PM 08-09 EDT

Tropical Systems are known to be sometimes surprising...

This is a quick update to let you know that Tropical Depression 4 has indeed formed. Info now suggests that it may not landfall, however the weak steering winds and very slow movement make any such discussion dangerous. One model has it basically stalling just off the coast, and forming into Hurricane status, but staying OFFSHORE. However, it is much too early to be jumping to conclusions, as it is now just a weak surface low/depression. Until convection fires, this is pure speculation. The fact that it is currently drifting adds questions, and I'm doubting it getting much stronger than it currently is. But, it's worth noting.

Ugh, this one is going to be hard to watch being so close. NHC suggests that it may eventually move NE away from land before ever making landfall. Will it get close enough for us to see some effects? Probably, but nothing major. This is open for debate here.

We will post more as things come in.

Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.